Worked in 2000, during a stay in Japan, I engaged in trying to produce a new perspective to the analysis of seismic risk. I always thought that the “extreme values method, called GUMPBEL” is a sort of black box, because shows results, but it is difficult to infer how they were calculated, so I strive to develop the new approach.
I took advantage of the large amount of literature that I had around me, in Japan, and a good group of Japanese technicians specialized in the area of earthquake engineering and seismology. I revise many papers that talk about, the way to predict the rupture of a fault and how the waves travel along the soil layers.
At the end, the Seismic Energy Released Method ( SEREM ) was obtained. The interesting method allows the researcher to estimate, using actual (“real”) data of seismic hazard in a region. But in the process, concomitantly, seismic performance curves are obtained in the region , allowing the researcher to analyze, how region realeses seismic energy, over time .
100 years of seismic data, measured with equipment and 500 years with historical data, were analyzed and it turns out that the seismic behavior is correlated, over the centuries. It is possible to observe a defined pattern of behavior and also it is subjected to the principles of cyclicity , raised by Charles Francis Richter , died September 30, 1985 . As a result of this approach, curves show the seismic behavior of Ecuador over the centuries, having a pattern, in which, within a century, two seismic reactivations lasting 10 to 15 years occur, and the rest of the time seismic activity is lower.
In 2000, I proposed that seismic reactivation of Ecuador was initiated and lasted until about 2015, the year was determined, taking into account the variability in the beginning of the reactivation process, in the last 6 centuries. Being natural processes, is very uncertain pinpoint dates, but it is possible to identify and study patterns of behavior depending on the data that are available. Subsequently, the study was extended to the other regions of the world and it was determined that the seismic reactivation was not only in Ecuador, it occurs in the whole world.
You want to know what happens with the seismic activity of the world?, The reason of the grade 9, earthquake in Japan, Tsumatra, Chile; the seismic activity in Peru, Mexico, California; the seismic and volcanic activity in Ecuador and Colombia. The answer is, we are experiencing a reactivation of the seismic energy released in the world, in the next years will be critical and afterwards move on to a stage of seismic tranquility.
M.Sc.(TUM), Pst.Gr.(Tokyo),Ing. Lenin Marcelo Moncayo Theurer
SIESMIC ENERGY RELEASED METHOD 